A limited war may not stay limited for long

A limited war may not stay limited for long

Amin Saikal

India and Pakistan

NEW DELHI India and Pakistan, two long-time foes who now have nuclear arms, seem poised for another military confrontation. In the initial stage, both sides can be expected to go only for limited war, starting with an Indian attack on military installations and strategic points in Pakistan's Azad Kashmir.

The problem is that the war may not remain limited for long, because in striking back Pakistan may well hit Indian Punjab, which is densely populated, a vital granary and close to the heartland of central India. This could lead to an all-out war, including a nuclear exchange, with devastating consequences for both sides as well as grave implications for global security. . The tensions between the countries have been escalating by the day. Although India has been complaining about "cross-border terrorism" from Pakistan for years, the current crisis really stemmed from an attack on the Indian Parliament in December. New Delhi blamed Kashmiri Islamic groups that are fighting against India's rule of the predominantly Muslim Jammu and Kashmir. It said that the groups are backed by Pakistan.

Emboldened by the U.S. military campaign against terrorists in Afghanistan, the Indian government increased pressure on Pakistan. It mobilized forces along the already heavily armed "line of control" that serves as the de facto frontier between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. It also demanded that Islamabad close down certain anti-Indian Islamic organizations supported by Pakistan's military intelligence and arrest their leaders as well as a number of other terrorist suspects. New Delhi expected the United States to lean heavily on Islamabad to concede to India's demands. However, this expectation was misplaced.

The military ruler of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharaf, in a speech on Jan. 12, denounced terrorism and pledged to crack down on Islamic extremism in Pakistan. His aim was to shift Pakistan to the U.S. side after Sept. 11 by sacrificing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which Islamabad had supported. But Musharaf did little to persuade India to de-escalate the military pressure, which by now Pakistan had matched in kind. Musharaf made it clear that while Pakistan wanted peace with India, it would not meet all of New Delhi's demands. . The few anti-Indian Islamic militants who were arrested following his speech were released within weeks. The crunch point came in the last few days, with attacks by Kashmiri militants in Jammu and Kashmir, causing many civilian and military deaths. This prompted India to expel the Pakistani High Commissioner and intensify its troop reinforcement and military action along the border with Pakistan.

The problem is that Musharaf's cooperation with the United States in the war against terror has won him kudos from President George W. Bush. Musharaf evidently feels confident that in the event of a war started by India, Pakistan could not be abandoned by Washington. Yet the Indian government, which says it is fighting against terrorism, needs all the support it can master from the United States to pressure Islamabad to disengage from the Kashmir issue. . Meanwhile, having backed itself into a corner, New Delhi appears to have no exit strategy except to launch what Indian policymakers call a limited war. But India can be sure neither of winning such a war nor of keeping it limited. An escalating conventional conflict could easily lead to a nuclear war between Pakistan and India. Musharaf has always said that he would have no hesitation in using Pakistan's nuclear weapons in a national crisis.

The writer, who directs the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University in Canberra, contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.